Government Affairs Blog

Endgame

The Conservative party conference begins this weekend.  In the first of my blogs on the party conferences I said that Cameron had to do two things: appease his party and stay on the centre ground.  That was before we witnessed the Labour party’s electoral juggernaut in action.

The Conservative party conference and Cameron’s leadership will now be defined against an agenda set by Gordon Brown. 

Regardless of political positions, one has to accept that Labour is now playing at the top of its game politically.  When Brown set out his stall for the leadership of Labour he pitched liberal prose mixed with Presbyterian morality.  By the time he reached Bournemouth, he used that to go further and sketch out a political narrative that speaks directly to the aspirations and apprehensions of Middle England. 

According to a report in the Guardian this strategy was formulated after a series of focus groups were held up and down the country.  What is impressive is that it wasn’t just Brown who peppered his speech with the tunes of a concerned middle class, it was the whole Cabinet.  This demonstration of being on message far exceeds anything Alistair Campbell could have dreamt of as he trained each day for his run in the London marathon.

The careful handling of the election narrative by Brown’s advisers has kept the news agenda firmly under the control of Labour. 

This last tactic could backfire.  There is no constitutional reason for the Government to go to the country.  Arguably, there is a case for renewing the political mandate but the election fever that has gripped not only the media but the higher echelons of the Labour leadership means that in the end Brown might not have a choice: he may be forced to go in November.  If there is no choice the electorate may feel queasy about the whole thing and Cameron just might get his party’s act together.  The problem for Labour is that by the time their strategists see the warning signs their leader will be getting into the PM car and making his way to Buckingham Palace.

When Cameron became leader he claimed Brown was the ‘road block to change’.  Apparently, the Conservatives felt Cameron would shine against the dour Brown.  Now it seems Cameron has to prove that he can match Brown, not the other way round.

Of course, the polls could be a false dawn for Labour. A lot of the bounce appears to be coming from Lib Dem voters going to Labour.  The Tory vote is hovering around 32%.  But is that enough to win an election?  Probably not but it might be enough to deny Labour a working majority.  And in some polls the Lib Dem vote is holding at around 19%.  The important point to remember is that in three-party politics national swings don’t count as much as in individual seats.  The Lib Dems could deny the Tories and Labour some seats even with a drop in their national vote.

The fact that this blog is largely about Brown illustrates the task Cameron has on his hands.  Not only does he have to appease a nervous centre-right party while staying centre or liberal conservative, he now must take back the political and electoral agenda by defining the political zeitgeist.  The electoral endgame beckons.

Simon Goldie is Head of Communication at The Chartered Institute of Taxation – www.tax.org.uk - and a member of the CIPR GAG committee