Government Affairs Blog

Conference diary: the man who wasn’t there

The party conference season has begun this weekend as the Liberal Democrats gather in Brighton.  Over the next three weeks all the main parties will meet, discuss politics, catch-up with old friends, fall in and out of love (or lust), eat, drink and argue. 

For the activists the conference season is the opportunity to come together with their leadership and participate in the party political process.  Even though Labour and Conservative party policy is no longer made on the conference floor there will be fringe meetings and lots of opportunities for the members to air their views. 

For the leadership of all three parties the conferences are an opportunity to talk to the nation via the tribal gathering. 

I will not be attending any of the conferences so what you will read is a diary from a man who wasn’t there.  At the end of each week I will report on what it all means and time permitting may even blog during the week if something significant happens.  The reports will be based on what the media say, what I pick up from people I know in the world of public affairs and what information the GAG executive committee send me.

Below are some of the political questions that are likely to obsess the press and those involved in party politics.

Liberal Democrats

Ming Campbell’s leadership has already come under heavy scrutiny.  We can expect his speech to conference to be described as make or break.  It won’t be because despite the rumblings there doesn’t appear to be any appetite to go through another leadership contest.

The other people to watch are Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg.  Huhne tried for the leadership and lost.  Clegg is talked about as the heir apparent.  Other rumours say he isn’t committed to going for the top job.  Clegg will launch a tough immigration policy at conference while Huhne is in charge of explaining the new policy on the environment.  He is also fronting a book called Reinventing the State.  This is supposedly a challenge to The Orange Book.  But like life politics is never that simple.  Huhne contributed to the latter and Clegg the former.

Labour

The big question at the Labour conference is will the Prime Minister announce an October election.  If he is going for the autumn the pundits say that he is highly likely to announce it at the conference.  The safe money is to bet on no election but Gordon Brown does like to surprise.

The other thing to watch is the Brown speech: his first to conference as leader and PM.  Can he excite the party and stay firmly on the political centre ground?  Watch out for his vision of Britain and his plans for the constitutional system.  It is likely that we will see more borrowing from the American form of government.

Conservatives

Like Brown, Cameron must appease his party, naturally on the centre-right, and send out a clear signal to the electorate that he is remaining in the political centre.  The polls say Cameron is doing okay given the difficulties the Conservatives have faced in the last few months.  But if the Conservatives are to return to Government they need a far better lead in the opinion polls than they currently have. 

All three

After each conference each party normally gets a poll boost.  This year the question will be for each one by how much and can it be sustained.

Simon Goldie is Head of Communication at The Chartered Institute of Taxation – www.tax.org.uk - and a member of the CIPR GAG committee